← StoneCup -Road to Nationals-
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at StoneCup -Road to Nationals-
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-5-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1294
· range 1177–1410
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1232
Q3 1401
1597
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
